Archive for February, 2010

Forex Course: A Quick Forex Guide for Traders

In this Forex course we will review some steps you need to take care before you venture into your trading journey. Most traders venture into the Forex market with little or no experience in the Forex market. This results in painful experiences like loosing most of the risk capital, frustration because it seemed so easy to make money, etc.

The first thing you need to realize is that, it is not easy to make money. As every other endeavor in life, where important rewards are to come after mastering it, you need to work hard. You need to get very well educated and experienced before having the possibility to receive important rewards on it. The key on mastering the Forex market relies on commitment, patience and discipline.

Ok, you have decided you are going to trade the Forex market, you have seen several advertisings featuring how easy is to make money in the Forex market. You might think this is your opportunity to reach your financial freedom, right away, time is money, why waiting any longer if you have the opportunity to make money now. I know, Ive been there, but you have a chance now, I didnt, no body told me what I am going to tell you.

We, Forex traders, make transactions based on a set of rules. These sets of rules are what we call a Trading System. Our systems tell us the exact time where we need to get in the market and out the market in order to make a profit (i.e. buy low sell high.)

Creating a system is the first big step you need to take care first. Why is this so important? Because you need to build a system that suits your personality, otherwise you are going to find hard to follow it, thus hard to profit from. A system can be based on technical indicators or what we called a mechanical system or based on experience and intuition or what we call discretionary systems. I highly recommend using and trying first a mechanical system, because discretionary systems are dangerous during the early stages of a Forex trader (can lead to indiscipline.) With experience, on later stages, you will find out which signals work better and which ones to avoid.

The next step in this Forex course is to try your system on a demo account. Most Forex brokers offer a demo account, an account with virtual money. This is an excellent choice to test your trading system as there is no money at risk. In this step you will figure out if the strategy works for you. If you feel comfortable trading it, then it is most likely to produce good results. How much time should you stay in this step? It varies, but you shouldnt go one step further until your system gets consistent profitable results over a period of time. It can take many months, but remember, you need to be patient.

You must be honest to yourself; you need to take every single signal generated by your system, not only the signals you thought were going to work, otherwise, you are going to have problems in the next two steps.

Ok, by know you had consistent profitable results on your demo account. You might think its time to go full. Nope, nope, nope. There is a big difference between trading a demo and a real account. The most important difference lies on emotions (fear, greed, anger, etc.) These are psychological barriers that affect every single decision made by traders regardless of what he/she is trading (stocks, bonds, Forex, futures, grains, etc.) These emotional factors, in my opinion, are the most determinant factor that separates profitable traders from the others.

The next step in this Forex course is specially designed to deal with emotions and to confirm the results obtained in the prior step (consistent results in a demo account.) At this step you need to trade in a real account with limited funds. Some brokers offer fractional lot trading. Meaning you are able to trade any desired amount (even cents.) The important thing here is that these emotions weve been talking about are present only when there is real money at risk. At this stage, you are going to see if you are really comfortable trading your system and if you are able to trade with such system, remember different systems produce different emotions. If you are able to produce similar results than those obtained in a demo account, then ready for the next step. If you didnt, then you might need to create another system, there is chance your system never fit you. If you created consistent profitable results on this stage, you have a chance to produce similar results in the next one, on the other hand, if you didnt produce good results in this stage, you will not be able to make on the next stage. Remember, you need to do things right, and be honest to yourself.

The last stage is trading in a real account with sufficient funds. If you are at this stage, and have passed successfully every prior stage, then you have a chance to make it, go ahead and try it, you need to be confident in yourself and in your system, your strategy have already produced consistent profitable results, there are reasons to believe you are going to make it. Very few traders fail at this stage (if passed successfully prior stages.)

Trading successfully is no easy task, it requires a lot of work, patience, discipline, and education. By completing the steps outlined in this Forex course, you have a chance to produce profitable results. I repeat it again, you need to be honest to yourself about the results obtained in every stage. Some times you might need expert guidance regarding your system development strategies.

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Forex And Commodities Futures And Options. What To Know Before

Forex And Commodities Futures And Options. What To Know Before You Trade.

The popularity of trading futures and options has been growly rapidly for several years. The ease of accessing constantly updated data online has prompted an increased fever by day traders to attempt to be successful and make money in this risky investment area. Individuals can now trade these markets with the same ease and speed as large companies.

Trading forex ( foreign exchange ) and commodity futures and options is not for everyone. It is a complex and risky business that experiences volatile price and value swings. Before you invest any money in forex, commodities futures or option contracts, you should:

Consider your financial trading experience, goals, and financial resources and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment.

Understand commodity futures and option contracts and your obligations before commiting your finances into trade contracts.

Understand your risk exposure and aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Know who to contact if you have a problem or question.

Ask more questions and gather more information before you open an account.

Commodity futures and option contracts:

A futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specific financial product or commodity in the future, on a designated exchange, for a specific quantity of a commodity at a specific price. The buyer and seller of a futures contract will agree now on a price for a product to be delivered, or paid, for at a specifically set date and time in the future, which is known as the “settlement date.” Actual delivery of the commodity can take place in fulfillment of the contract, but most futures contracts are actually closed out or “offset” prior to delivery.

An option on a commodity futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties that gives the buyer, who pays a market determined price known as a “premium,” the right (but not the obligation), within a specific time period, to exercise his option. Exercise of the option will result in the person being deemed to have entered into a futures contract at a specified price known as the “strike price.” In some cases, an option may confer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset directly, and these options are known as options on the physical asset.

In the United States, an individual, cannot trade futures contracts and options on futures contracts directly on an exchange. A person or firm must trade on your behalf. People and firms who trade on your behalf as a customer generally must be registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Two general categories of trading accounts:

Individual Account. In an individual account, trading is done only for you. An individual account may be setup as either a “non-discretionary” or a “discretionary” account. A “non-discretionary” account, means that you will make all of the trading decisions and the broker may not execute any transactions without your prior approval and consent. A “discretionary” individual account, means that you give permission to the broker firm carrying your account or some third party to make trading decisions on your behalf.

You may open an individual account with a registered Futures Commission Merchant or through an Introducing Broker. An Introducing Broker may accept your orders and transmit them for execution to a Futures Commission Merchant with which the Introducing Broker has a relationship. You deposit funds directly with the Futures Commission Merchant. In an individual discretionary account, you grant power-of-attorney to a Futures Commission Merchant, an Introducing Broker, one of their Associated Persons, or a Commodity Trading Advisor to make trading decisions on your behalf.

Commodity Pool. You may also trade commodities through a “commodity pool.” This means you are purchasing a share or interest in the pool, and trades are executed for the pool as a whole, rather than for the individuals who have interests in the pool. Pool participants share in any gains or losses.

If you have a dispute or a problem arises out of your commodity futures or option account, first try to resolve the problem with your broker. If that is not successful, then you have options for resolving disputes: (1) the CFTC Reparations program; (2) industry sponsored arbitration; or (3) court litigation. In selecting a particular approach, you may want to consider the cost, length of time involved and whether or not the assistance of an attorney is required. More information on dispute resolution is available from the CFTC’s Office of Proceedings (202-418-5250).

A Checklist “Before You Trade”:

Make sure you have:

Clearly identified your financial goals, including the amount of risk and loss you can handle?
Determined how much assistance and help you may want from a trading advisor in making trading decisions?
Checked the registration status and disciplinary history of the advisor or pool you select with the National Futures Association?
Received and thoroughly reviewed the disclosure document — before you open an account?
Clearly understood the disclosure document, including the statement of fees, the potential for loss, your right to withdraw your funds and the “break-even analysis?”

Make sure you ask questions for anything that you do not understand. Remember, it is your money, make sure you know where it is going.

Call the CFTC or the NFA with any questions you may have?

http://www.cftc.gov
http://www.nfa.futures.org

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Currency Trading: Finding Your Niche

Currency trading is quite similar to trading stocks on the market. While you may or may not have any familiarity with those options, you should know that trading in this form is quite popular and it keeps gaining in popularity. There are many reasons for that, but in most cases it is popular because it works and is quite straightforward which makes it very well worth your time.

Currency trading is a method of trading based on the value of currency. In most cases, the worlds economy is the judge of how much you can and will make. This is different than with stocks which rely heavily on the United States economy. In this case, you are dealing with world markets and world currency rates.

The basis is very simple. You simply will purchase currency at a time in which it is worth less. For example, the dollar is worth more. You purchase low and then as the economy strengthens in that country, you can sell to make a profit. Basically you turn in your money for dollars again.

But, that is quite a simplistic look at it. There are many things that influence currency trading. What makes it attractive to anyone, anywhere is that you can invest pennies or quite a bit of money. Obviously you can make more money, the more you invest, but you still make money either way. Currency trading is a market that many are looking to get into for that very reason.

There are many currency trading options available to you to help you as well. You will find that people often have a system in place to help them monitor and make sales. This software is able to be found throughout the web and can be quite beneficial if you want to do the trading yourself. If you do not, you can easily get the help of any of the currency trading advisors out there. Its a great opportunity!

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Forex 101 – Foreign Currency Exchange Trading

Nearly everyone enjoys making money. More often than not, the more money we make the better we feel and the more confidence we have. These are good things as long as making money doesnt get too emotional. If investing is treated like a business and most of the emotion is left behind, many people can do well with their investments.

Forex Trading, also known as FX Trading is another way you can make money in a trading environment. Everyone has heard of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), each featuring either stock trading or options and futures trading. Forex Trading involves the buying and selling of currencies instead of stocks, bonds, options or futures. It is also different in that there is no physical floor or exchange area like there is in New York or Chicago where the above mentioned exchanges are located. The Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX) can only be accessed by phone or by electronic network. The advantage of not having a central location, but instead having an electronic network, is that the Forex can operate 24 hours a day. In fact, it is open for trading all day and night during work days, roughly 5 days a week.

Since the Spot Forex Market is the largest financial market in the world, it is also the most liquid. This means it is easy to get in and out of a position whenever you want. The more liquid a market is, the easier it is to initiate and fulfill a transaction. Of course, the objective when trading in any market is to buy low and sell high. With Online Forex Trading, a person buys and sells the currencies of other nations. If one believes the U.S. Dollar will strengthen against the EURO, for instance, they can buy Dollars now and sell them later at a profit. Currencies are traded in currency pairs and each currency is represented by a 3 letter code. Therefore, a rate, which consists of a pair of currency codes, will end up being a 6 letter code. For instance, USD/GBP is considered a currency pair with each containing three letters for a total of 6 in a rate.

Your objective as a Forex trader is to make sure you can correctly identify the current trend in the currencies you are trading and to make sure you are buying a currency which is appreciating in value and selling a currency which is depreciating. Slightly different than stock trading, you will utilize special software programs which allow you to participate in Online Forex Trading. You can also participate in Forex Trading Education at many Forex Trading company websites, and some allow you to test your Forex Trading Strategy in a practice mode before you actually use your own money.

Forex or FX Currency Trading can be an exciting alternative to the stock, bond, option or precious metals markets. To some it is a simpler way to trade and profit. To others it is a welcome break from disappointing corporate news that can drive a stock down dramatically in seconds. Whatever your reasons, Forex Trading may be just the break you need from other investments you may be tiring of.

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Currency Trading

Have you heard about FOREX? How currencies are traded?

When you think about Forex, what do you think of first? Which aspects of Forex are important, which are essential, and which ones can you take or leave? You be the judge.

Lets talk about FOREX and advantages of FOREX trading.

The good thing about FOREX is that the amount of money you need to place a trade (known as “margin”) is all that can be lost!

Of course, with the proper self-taught education you will win more than you will lose, but you should know that despite the high leverage of FOREX trading (200:1 is possible, which means that when you put up $1 the trading vendor will allow you to trade it as if you have $200), its still less risky than futures (commodities) trading. And when you trade stocks you cant get this type of leverage.

Because of the FOREX markets liquidity and twenty four hours continuous trading, dangerous trading gaps and limit moves are eliminated. Orders are executed very quickly, without slippage. If you do your research and find good brokers, they will automatically close some or all of your open positions if your accounts equity falls below the level required to hold the positions. Youll never lose more than you have in your FOREX account.

Currencies are traded in dollar amounts called *lots* — One lot is equal to $1,000, which controls $100,000 in currency.
This is the “margin” I talked about above. You can control $100,000 worth of currency for only 1,000 dollars.

Currencies are always traded in pairs. The most popular currencies and their symbols are:

USD – The US Dollar
EUR – The currency of the European Union “EURO”
GBP – The British Pound
JPN – The Japanese Yen
CHF – The Swiss Franc
AUD – The Australian Dollar
CAD – The Canadian Dollar

A currency can never be traded by itself, so you can’t trade a USD by itself. You always need to compare one currency with another currency to make a trade possible.

The most commonly traded currency pairs are:

EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar
“Euro”

USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen
“Dollar Yen”

GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar
“Cable”

USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
“Dollar Canada”

AUD/USD Australian Dollar/US Dollar
“Aussie Dollar”

USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc
“Swissy”

EUR/JPY Euro / Japanese Yen
“Euro Yen”

The currency on the left is called the base currency. The currency on the right is the counter currency. For example, when you place an order to buy EUR/USD pair, you are actually buying the EUR and you are selling the USD. When you place an order to sell EUR/USD you are selling the EUR and you are buying the USD. Buying or selling a currency PAIR means buying or selling the base currency, and doing the opposite with the counter currency.

It might seem a little confusing, but actually it is easier to treat the currency PAIR as one item. It means when you place trades you simply sell or buy the pair. The base/counter concept is only important for fundamental analysis.

To decide when to sell or buy you will need to learn technical analysis and/or fundamental analysis.

In currency trading you can make money both, when the currencies go up or down.

The FOREX currency trading is a great way to work from home in your free time. You can trade any time you want, from Monday to Friday. But you must know that you can lose money in FOREX. So, getting the proper education and trading before doing any real trades is a must. Fortunately you can first practice on a demo account, until you get to the point that you win 70% of your trades. Nobody wins 100%. But you can be in profit even with 50% wins.

There are plenty of books and courses to learn currency trading, but be careful with all those $1000+ courses. Usually you can find courses with the same content for much less.

If you want to learn more about FOREX go to: http://www.currencytradingmethod.com. You will get a free e-book Forex Freedom.

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Forex: Why Psychiatrists Make Better Traders Than Expert Economists?

It should be noted that millionaire traders, Elder, Williams and some others are in fact professional psychiatrists. And it is not accidental that not the economists are the leaders and most successful traders, but professional psychiatrists and psychotherapists. Think about it. You will become a successful trader when you understand why it happens with Forex. You will understand what your Forex mistakes are, and why you are making them. And when you correct these mistakes you will become a trader who has no psychological barriers and obstacles on his way to better earnings in the Forex market.

So, why do the psychiatrists make better traders than economists who, as one would think, have the Forex market at their finger tips?

The economists are confused by:

- the fact that exchange rates are not always related directly to the economic circumstances in the countries. Well, do you know any economist who would be bidding for low fx rates when the economic situation is getting better and better? Or the one who admits that technical analysis of currency pairs is more important for Forex trading than the fundamental one? Any economist is confident that this can never happen because he knows all the economic dogmas. But it happens in the Forex. After all, how can a trader lose with the currencies moving up and down by the economic rules? The currency will surely react to the economic changes in the country, but who knows when and how? Here is a tip: there is the Elliott fifth way to teach a lesson to the ones who believe that fundamental knowledge is enough (before the trend turns, the currency spurts absurdly by the old trend), to confuse and draw the newbies into the game, while the experts wait for the trend to turn back.

- the lack of psychological knowledge that helps to understand the behavior of the crowd. And that is self-evident.

Are there any methods to overcome this fear?

It seems that every Forex book, every article offers efficient solutions for psychological difficulties experienced by the traders.

IN FACT NEITHER OF THESE BOOKS CONTAINS METHODS TO OVERCOME THE FEAR EXPERIENCED BY A FOREX TRADER!

But what do these books offer instead?

Almost every book of this kind consists of two unequal parts:

- the bigger part of the book narrates about traders problem that interfere with their Forex work and make it unsuccessful (nervousness, doubts, worries, fear, sleep deprivation, etc.). As if the traders do not know their own problems.

- the considerably lesser part contains conclusions and recommendations to the traders who are to solve their problems and overcome their fears to become successful.

The conclusions are disappointing:

Many psychiatrists realize that the new field opens before their eyes now they may treat traders whose number amounts to millions all over the world and is growing with every day. And since most traders have a dream to become as successful as George Soros and other famous traders, this new field promises to be rather lucrative.

One thing is bad though: the overwhelming majority of these new-sprung trader brain specialists do not even know what the Forex is all about.

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Currency Forex Trading: Betting The Ups And Downs

Total the amount of money involved in a days trading on the US stock and Treasury Bills markets by three, and youll still have less than a third of the amount of money which exchanges hands on the currency Forex–foreign exchange–market. The currency Forex market is where the money of one country–US dollars, for instanceis exchanged for that of another, like Japanese yen.

But unlike the worlds other economic markets, currency Forex trading is not centralized. There is no Wall Street or Throgmorton Street with an historic exchange building; Currency Forex trading exists only over telephone wires and Internet connections.

But exist it does; and it involve a global network of financial institutions, individuals, and banks all working around the clock and unhampered by international borders. Time and physical distance have no meaning in the currency Forex market.

At one time currency Forex trading was the domain of banks that held large amounts of money in various currencies so that they could participate in global investment and business opportunities. Individuals could participate in currency Forex trading only by going through their banks. But when exchange rates became unregulated the volume of currency Forex trading began to mushroom.

What Is Currency Forex Trading?

When either a private corporation or government wishes to either buy or sell products or services in another country, it has to engage in bartering its national currency against the currency of the country where it wishes to do business. There are also large numbers of investment firms who trade the currency Forex market as a more speculative part of their portfolios. For more info see http://www.e-forextradingsystem.com/ on e-Forex Trading.

And even individuals can participate in trading the currency Forex market, provided they have sufficient risk capital and are willing to do the homework necessary to master the art of currency Forex trading, which can be extremely complicated.

Currency Forex Trading At Home

Many individuals are drawn to the currency Forex market because they see it as a lucrative business which can be run from the convenience of their homes. All that is required is a personal computer with an Internet connection and a workstation organized with to create a minimum of distractions. They see the currency Forex market as both inflation and deflation proof, and a way to make money regardless of the worldwide economic situation.

Investors make or lose money when trading the currency Forex market depending on the fluctuations of the currency exchange rates. All currencies are constantly appreciating or depreciating in value when compared to one another, and it is up to the individual investor to understand how conditions around the globe will increase of decrease currency values before risking his or her money trading those currencies.

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Forex: Benefits of Trading the Forex Market.

Trading the Forex market has become very popular in the last years. Why is it that traders around the world see the Forex market as an investment opportunity? We will try to answer this question in this article. Also we will discuss come differences between the Forex market, the stocks market and the futures market.

Some of the benefits of trading the Forex market are:

Superior liquidity
Liquidity is what really makes the Forex market different from other markets. The Forex market is by far the most liquid financial market in the world with nearly 2 trillion dollars traded everyday. This ensures price stability and better trade execution. Allowing traders to open and close transactions with ease. Also such a tremendous volume makes it hard to manipulate the market in an extended manner.

24hr Market
This one is also one of the greatest advantages of trading Forex. It is an around the click market, the market opens on Sunday at 3:00 pm EST when New Zealand begins operations, and closes on Friday at 5:00 pm EST when San Francisco terminates operations. There are transactions in practically every time zone, allowing active traders to choose at what time to trade.
Leverage trading

Trading the Forex Market offers a greater buying power than many other markets. Some Forex brokers offer leverage up to 400:1, allowing traders to have only 0.25% in margin of the total investment. For instance, a trader using 100:1 means that to have a US$100,000 position, only US$1,000 are needed on margin to be able to open that position.

Low Transaction costs
Almost all brokers offer commission free trading. The only cost traders incur in any transaction is the spread (difference between the buy and sell price of each currency pair). This spread could be as low as 1 pip (the minimum increment in any currency pair) in some pairs.

Low minimum investment
The Forex market requires less capital to start trading than any other markets. The initial investment could go as low as $300 USD, depending on leverage offered by the broker. This is a great advantage since Forex traders are able to keep their risk investment to the lowest level.

Specialized trading
The liquidity of the market allows us to focus on just a few instruments (or currency pairs) as our main investments (85% of all trading transactions are made on the seven major currencies). Allowing us to monitor, and at the end get to know each instrument better.

Trading from anywhere
If you do a lot of traveling, you can trade from anywhere in the world just having an internet connection.

Some of the most important differences between the Forex market and other markets are explained below.

Forex market vs. Equity markets

Liquidity
FX market: Near two trillion dollars of daily volume.
Equity market: Around 200 billion on a daily basis.

Trading hours
FX market: 24hr market, 5.5 days a week
Equity market: Monday through Friday from 8:30 EST to 5:00 EST

Profit potential
FX market: In both, rising and falling markets.
Equity market: Most traders/investor profit only from rising markets.

Transaction costs
FX market: Commission free and tight spreads.
Equity market: High Commissions and transaction fees.

Buying power
FX market: Leverage up to 400:1
Equity market: Leverage from 2:1 to 4:1

Specialization
FX market: most volume (85%) is made on major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and AUD)
Equity market: More than 40,000 stocks to choose from

Forex market vs. Futures market

Liquidity
FX Market: Near two trillion dollars of daily volume.
Futures market: Around 400 billion dollars on a daily basis.

Transaction costs
FX market: Commission free and tight spreads.
Futures market: High commissions fees.

Margin
FX market: Fixed rate of margin on every position.
Futures market: Different levels of margin on overnight positions than day time positions.

Trade execution
FX market: Instantaneous execution.
Futures market: Inconsistent execution.

All this makes the Forex market very attractive to investors and traders. But I need to make something clear, although the benefits of trading the Forex market are notorious; it is still difficult to make a successful career trading the Forex market. It requires a lot of education, discipline, commitment and patience, as any other market.

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Forex: Amazing Profits From Momentum Position Trading

When the market explodes out of a channel, either rising above resistance or dropping below support, use the momentum technique with the MACD. This is generally a position trade, lasting several days or even a month. While youll pay a small overnight renewal fee (with most brokers) to keep the trade active, these trades generally bring in enough pips to make holding the position well worth your while.

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is a popular indicator that works well in momentum markets. MACD (pronounced mac-d) plots three different exponential moving averages, and displays them as two lines of different colors that criss-cross atop the chart itself or within the window below it. One line is the MACD itself; the other is called the signal or trigger line.

The MACD also plots a histogram, which is a sort of bar chart in the window below the currency pairs price chart. On the MACD histogram, there is a line that signals the zero point, called the centerline, and the bars of its chart rise and fall above and below that centerline like a wave. The histogram illustrates the difference between the MACD line and its signal line; when they cross each other, the histogram will read zero.

If your software platform wants you to set the configuration of the MACD, the most popular settings are 12 and 26 for the indicator itself and 9 for the signal line. Experiment to find what works best for you and your own trading style.

Like the RSI, MACD can indicate when a currency pair is overbought or oversold. Theres no specific number to indicate this, but when the lines of the histogram get really long, thats a good hint that a reversal could be near.

Again like the RSI, MACD can indicate divergence. When the price reaches a new high or low but the MACD line doesnt, that could mean the momentum is weakening. Again, a reversal could be near.

The technique

When the MACD crosses its signal line, thats an entry signal in the direction the MACD line is going. If it falls below its signal line, look to see if a short trade is feasible; if it rises above it, go long. This signal is considered especially strong if, shortly after the crossover happens, the price of the currency pair breaks above resistance or below support; that could signal a big move.

Be aware that the MACD is a lagging indicator, so its signals wont call the absolute highs and lows for you. Thats why its not helpful in a range-bound market: if you base your entry points only on the MACD, by the time the indicator catches up to the current price, the price may have risen or fallen so far within the channel that theres no longer enough of a trade left to be profitable.

When using the MACD in a momentum market, where price has broken through support or resistance and is reaching new highs or lows, the MACD signals may start showing divergence, indicating the trend is weakening when perhaps it really isnt. In that situation, watch the price chart itself, and compare what it is telling you to what the indicators show.

For example, lets say the GBP/USD has broken out above resistance and is reaching new highs. The MACD signaled the break by crossing over its trigger line, but as the price continues to rise, the MACD doesnt reach new highs, indicating divergence, and you wonder if the trend is weakening. Meanwhile, the price continues to rise.

Should you bail out? No. Watch the chart.

As the GBP/USD continues to rise, it will fluctuate in short- and intermediate term trends, going down a bit then rising again. This is called market jitters, or swing lows (if the currency pair was falling, they would be called swing highs). Dont let it bother you; its perfectly normal.

Notice that each new swing low is higher than the one before. The market doesnt swing down so much that the long-term trend changes; it just retraces itself for a while, then resumes its climb. It looks rather like someone dribbling a basketball up a hill, each dribble higher than the one before. (You do, of course, have your stop set far enough away that the swings dont trigger it and kick you out of a profitable trade. Hopefully your broker offers a trailing stop, so it rises to follow as the price goes up, locking in your profits.)

Wait for that pattern to change. When a swing low goes lower than the previous one, thats the bail-out point. Close your trade, then sit back and calculate your profits.

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